Holy Shit the US economy is fucked

[youthful_implants]

superfluous

how?

because its not really enough money, and not targeted at a wide enough demographic bracket to counteract lack of consumer confidence and spending.

the only thing that will do that is a further drop in interest rates imo

[FoundationStepper]

Ive been thinking though that a cash handout to people for xmas might to more for short term stimulus without long term inflationary pressures, as an ongoing tax cut might

ie a retail shot in the arm which gets us over the line, as opposed to increasing general pressure on services/trades

[ghetto kitty]

Ive been thinking though that a cash handout to people for xmas might to more for short term stimulus without long term inflationary pressures, as an ongoing tax cut might

ie a retail shot in the arm which gets us over the line, as opposed to increasing general pressure on services/trades

exactly, i get the basic premis petey, i aint that stoopid!
but I dont see how its gonna fix shit in the long run, as FS has said here.

[FoundationStepper]

In the long run though we aren't in the total poop.

Right now there will be decreased demand for goods and services worldwide. Less people buying aussie made stuff for example. and our domestic economy will lag, losing jobs in retail for eg, starting a downwards spiral. if retail as a sector relies on the xmas period and we can bolster it, it may help arrest the decline and put us on solid footing again to ride it out

[same o]

Ive been thinking though that a cash handout to people for xmas might to more for short term stimulus without long term inflationary pressures, as an ongoing tax cut might

ie a retail shot in the arm which gets us over the line, as opposed to increasing general pressure on services/trades

exactly, i get the basic premis petey, i aint that stoopid!
but I dont see how its gonna fix shit in the long run, as FS has said here.

ahh but by giving a short term boost it may create confidence in the market and get everything kick started again.

[ghetto kitty]

yeah i heard that exact line on lateline last night.

but if we all know the govts are bailing everyone out, how does that actually translate to 'confidence' ?
especially AFTER xmas and the bonuses run out?
do we honestly think its just 'gonna be fine" from then on?

all sounds like bullshit speak if you ask me.

[youthful_implants]

In the long run though we aren't in the total poop.

that totally depends on how the price of imports and exports change and whether those changes are unilateral or not over the next 12 months.

but if oil prices continue to rise, so will everything else - and thats when nations start to become a lot more guarded of their own resources.

Oz's biggest problem imo lies in how the water deficiency affects its own agriculture and industry which means that food prices could continue to rise which combined with the inflation of oil prices presents a potential threat to the food chain.

[same o]

yeah i heard that exact line on lateline last night.

but if we all know the govts are bailing everyone out, how does that actually translate to 'confidence' ?
especially AFTER xmas and the bonuses run out?
do we honestly think its just 'gonna be fine" from then on?

all sounds like bullshit speak if you ask me.

well for one we arnt bailing banks out, that is US and England so far.

And England are going about it in the right way, they are buying large chunks of the banks then re negotiating home loan interest rates so it is affordable and then when the banks are on there feet they will sell there share and basically making a proffit. (at least that is what i think they are doing, if they arnt they should be imo)

America (so far) are not doing this due to there idealisim when it comes to free market trading and all that.

The reason (to my understanding) it would create confidence (if it does at all) is because there will be an influx of money into the economy creating proffits. Where there are proffits there are people investing, where there are people investing, there are jobs created and where there are jobs there are people spending.

If you are able to sort of jump start peoples spending again it may help to kick start the economy.

Kinda like putting jumper leads on a car battery to get it started.

I may be completley off, but from what i gather that is the whole theory behinde it.

[youthful_implants]

yeah i heard that exact line on lateline last night.

but if we all know the govts are bailing everyone out, how does that actually translate to 'confidence' ?
especially AFTER xmas and the bonuses run out?
do we honestly think its just 'gonna be fine" from then on?

all sounds like bullshit speak if you ask me.

well for one we arnt bailing banks out, that is US and England so far.

And England are going about it in the right way, they are buying large chunks of the banks then re negotiating home loan interest rates so it is affordable and then when the banks are on there feet they will sell there share and basically making a proffit. (at least that is what i think they are doing, if they arnt they should be imo.

I would agree with you if the Government wasn't so notoriously bad at running banks.

[same o]

yeah i heard that exact line on lateline last night.

but if we all know the govts are bailing everyone out, how does that actually translate to 'confidence' ?
especially AFTER xmas and the bonuses run out?
do we honestly think its just 'gonna be fine" from then on?

all sounds like bullshit speak if you ask me.

well for one we arnt bailing banks out, that is US and England so far.

And England are going about it in the right way, they are buying large chunks of the banks then re negotiating home loan interest rates so it is affordable and then when the banks are on there feet they will sell there share and basically making a proffit. (at least that is what i think they are doing, if they arnt they should be imo.

I would agree with you if the Government wasn't so notoriously bad at running banks.

lol yeah well, i dont see that giving the banks a whole heap of money to do the same thing again would be best either. (not that you were saying that).

needs more regulation imo

[ghetto kitty]

The reason (to my understanding) it would create confidence (if it does at all) is because there will be an influx of money into the economy creating proffits. Where there are proffits there are people investing, where there are people investing, there are jobs created and where there are jobs there are people spending.

If you are able to sort of jump start peoples spending again it may help to kick start the economy.

Kinda like putting jumper leads on a car battery to get it started.

I may be completley off, but from what i gather that is the whole theory behinde it.

yeah i get the theory, it just seems reliant on the fact that a short burst of profit/spending/jobs will reassure everyone that its all hunky dory, but I certainly dont trust that the boat will right itself from that,
and im not even some big honcho who just lost loads of $$$, who i bet is even more skeptical,
and who is the person who we want to invest again you know?

and implants is right, sif anyone is gonna trust the big banks now!

[FoundationStepper]

In the long run though we aren't in the total poop.

that totally depends on how the price of imports and exports change and whether those changes are unilateral or not over the next 12 months.

but if oil prices continue to rise, so will everything else - and thats when nations start to become a lot more guarded of their own resources.

Oz's biggest problem imo lies in how the water deficiency affects its own agriculture and industry which means that food prices could continue to rise which combined with the inflation of oil prices presents a potential threat to the food chain.

I guess what i mean to say is that despite the challenges such as you mention, our finance system isn't inherently screwed to the same extent as the US + i think chinas internal growth + lower aus dollar will help us to a decent extent.

[youthful_implants]

In the long run though we aren't in the total poop.

that totally depends on how the price of imports and exports change and whether those changes are unilateral or not over the next 12 months.

but if oil prices continue to rise, so will everything else - and thats when nations start to become a lot more guarded of their own resources.

Oz's biggest problem imo lies in how the water deficiency affects its own agriculture and industry which means that food prices could continue to rise which combined with the inflation of oil prices presents a potential threat to the food chain.

I guess what i mean to say is that despite the challenges such as you mention, our finance system isn't inherently screwed to the same extent as the US + i think chinas internal growth + lower aus dollar will help us to a decent extent.

totally.

[Zerotonine]

Fail : Me buying any more American import stuff.

Not fail : Me not cringing at my mortgage interest rate.

[Stray]

The Aus banks are pretty healthy at the moment. For instance the Commonwealth bank just raised 2 billion dollars to purchase Bank West.
That's a lot of capital floating around.

[almax]

money system = fail

capitalism = unfair and inefficient distribution of wealth and power, a tendency toward market monopoly or oligopoly, social alienation, inequality, unemployment, and economic instability, corruption and negligence.
Capitalism requires continual economic growth, and will inevitably deplete the finite natural resources of the earth. Time we moved on imo

[FoundationStepper]

yer and socialism is soo much better right

[almax]

no i never said anything about socialism, there is a number of different options, here is some ideas, id probably prefer binary economics in a resource based economy with a world parliament similar to what George Monbiot speaks of.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Post-capitalism

[10.15]

Resource based economy ftw.

The Aus banks are pretty healthy at the moment.

I have no faith in this statement. See if the derivatives black hole keeps sucking financial institutions in around the world. I suspect our banks are just as dangerously exposed as everywhere else but there's no way to tell until the next domino falls. And the next one. And the next one.

You can't "fix" a systemic lack of confidence with massive hastily arranged cash injections and recapitalisation to the corrupt institutions that helped cause this mess. Only the TRUTH will properly restore confidence and I have long ago lost any faith in Western goverments ability to deal with that.

Won't believe Australian banks are solvent until I see their assets marked to market value.

[huge]

http://business.theage.com.au/business/ ... -5157.html

[ADD_Boy]

Resource based economy ftw.

The Aus banks are pretty healthy at the moment.

I have no faith in this statement. See if the derivatives black hole keeps sucking financial institutions in around the world. I suspect our banks are just as dangerously exposed as everywhere else but there's no way to tell until the next domino falls. And the next one. And the next one.

You can't "fix" a systemic lack of confidence with massive hastily arranged cash injections and recapitalisation to the corrupt institutions that helped cause this mess. Only the TRUTH will properly restore confidence and I have long ago lost any faith in Western goverments ability to deal with that.

Won't believe Australian banks are solvent until I see their assets marked to market value.

http://www.rba.gov.au/PublicationsAndRe ... _0908.html

Aussie banks are in a much better position than many other countries..

[10.15]

Resource based economy ftw.

The Aus banks are pretty healthy at the moment.

I have no faith in this statement. See if the derivatives black hole keeps sucking financial institutions in around the world. I suspect our banks are just as dangerously exposed as everywhere else but there's no way to tell until the next domino falls. And the next one. And the next one.

You can't "fix" a systemic lack of confidence with massive hastily arranged cash injections and recapitalisation to the corrupt institutions that helped cause this mess. Only the TRUTH will properly restore confidence and I have long ago lost any faith in Western goverments ability to deal with that.

Won't believe Australian banks are solvent until I see their assets marked to market value.

http://www.rba.gov.au/PublicationsAndRe ... _0908.html

Aussie banks are in a much better position than many other countries..

Agree to some extent but:

The Australian financial system has coped better with the recent turmoil than many other financial systems. The banking system is soundly capitalised, it has only limited exposure to sub-prime related assets, and it continues to record strong profitability and has low levels of problem loans. The large Australian banks all have high credit ratings and they have been able to continue to tap both domestic and offshore capital markets on a regular basis.

... is pretty much exactly what central banks and mainstream media were saying all over the world 12 months ago. I don't believe the RBA and other central banks are being honest about the extent or really the root cause of the problem.

Bretton Woods II is boned and always has been.

[ghetto kitty]

I dont believe the banks are being honest

exactly. sif they would let on and add to the already building fear.

aussie media is pretty fucking controlled too, they are telling us exactly what we need to hear to restore that 'confidence' , to spend spend spend!!!

[same o]

I dont believe the banks are being honest

exactly. sif they would let on and add to the already building fear.

aussie media is pretty fucking controlled too, they are telling us exactly what we need to hear to restore that 'confidence' , to spend spend spend!!!

err fear is not somthing that banks want.

they dont make money when no one is spending cuz fear

[ghetto kitty]

pete. dude.
i know. thats what i was saying.

as if they would let on how bad it is and add to the already building fear.

methinks you need to read and post s l o w e r ...

[10.15]

I dont believe the banks are being honest

exactly. sif they would let on and add to the already building fear.

aussie media is pretty fucking controlled too, they are telling us exactly what we need to hear to restore that 'confidence' , to spend spend spend!!!

err fear is not somthing that banks want.

they dont make money when no one is spending cuz fear

Banks don't but the assclowns running them who've been on the take for 30 years and have freed up their capital have been/will continue to be having a field day buying assets at bargain prices from the now financially distressed public. Shortselling is back soon too innit?

[ADD_Boy]

I say buy buy buy !!!!

It worked last week ...

[same o]

pete. dude.
i know. thats what i was saying.

as if they would let on how bad it is and add to the already building fear.

methinks you need to read and post s l o w e r ...

dislexia ftw tbh.

i read it and missed words lol

[FoundationStepper]

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/bu ... 85,00.html

A good piece on the lag between changes such as interest rates and how the immediate 'punch' would serve to fill in the gaps

[spiral]

the uk re-nationalisation (sp) scheme looks interesting , no dividend bonus for shareholders or bank executives until government gets its stake money back..

[same o]

America has bought shares in the banks

[C.I.A.]

Ok kids,

Prepare for another market hammering today.

I just had a look at the share price of the company I work for (listed on the NYSE)... we were $70 USD this time last year, and we are now at $28.

Lolz. Just realised that the drop in share price coincides with me joining the company CIA PHA1L.

US Wall Street had its worst day since the 1987 stock market crash on Wednesday, as bleak economic data fed worries that all the efforts to unlock credit markets may not stave off a severe recession.

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke added to those concerns when he said the economy faced a ``significant threat'' from paralyzed credit markets.

Dismal monthly US retail sales set the tone for the session, dropping the most in more than three years, while a measure of New York state manufacturing hit its lowest level since the index started in 2001.

The Dow and the benchmark S&P 500 suffered their worst one-day percentage drops since 1987.

The Dow Jones industrial average slid 733.08 points, or 7.87%, to 8,577.91, while the Standard & Poor's 500 Index tumbled 90.17 points, or 9.03%, to 907.84. The Nasdaq Composite Index sank 150.68 points, or 8.47%, to 1,628.33.

The Nasdaq has now wiped out all of its gains from Monday's 11% rally, while the benchmark S&P 500 is up only about 1% from Friday's close.

Australian shares are also set to slump when markets reopen this morning. The SPI-200 Futures were recently down 337 points to 4048, pointing to a drop of more than 9% for the S&P/ASX-200 share index at the opening.

The Australian dollar also resumed its recent falls overnight, dropping to 66.4 US cents in recent trading, and 66.5 yen. Late yesterday, the dollar was buying 71 US cents and 72 yen.

[mrj]

oh for an environment where we still had shorting.

open trade today would go short on S&P 200 with CFD's. guaranteed killing to be made.

[ADD_Boy]

kill kill kill !!!!

[10.15]

Glen Beck on CNN: "Global depression coming - NWO and one world currency is the endgame"
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hZsY5XbLinw

[10.15]

Maury Klien's 1929 / 2008 market crash comparison & comment for CNN. Good read.
Commentary: Is it 1929 all over again?

[deviant]

1.00 AUD = 64.1489 JPY

just keeps getting worse

[FoundationStepper]

isn't japan totally crashing? i thought this would drive the yen down?

[deviant]

hmmmmm, maybe it is and we're just crashing worse...

bah, whatevs

[FoundationStepper]

someone will explain it tomorrow im sure

it suxs dan

[10.15]

hmmmmm, maybe it is and we're just crashing worse...

bah, whatevs

Yen Carry Trade unwinding dude.
Yen Climbs to Highest Since 2002 on Global Economic Concern

The yen gained 1.6 percent to 64.67 against the Australian dollar and 1.2 percent to 157.02 versus the pound on speculation investors will unwind carry trades, in which they get funds in a country with low borrowing and buy assets where returns are higher. Japan's 0.5 percent target lending rate compares with 4.5 percent in the U.K. and 6 percent in Australia.

Australian investors used to borrow HEAPS of yen at sweeeet rates, convert and invest in risky A$ instruments. Now they wanna get rid of risky instruments and pay down any debts so Japan has cash flowing back in (high yen) even though their stock market is tanking along with everyone else's. Or such is my understanding.

[deviant]

1.00 AUD = 64.1489 JPY

just keeps getting worse

1.00 AUD = 61.5863 JPY

what the absolute fuck?

it's as if it's going down on purspose pending my trip....

please please please don't go down any further....!!!!!!!

please

[huge]

http://finance.google.com/finance?q=AUDJPY

pretty depressing for you!

[nhd]

dont worry deviant!
im going before you and its going to get lower before it gets higher
3 months ive been told to correct itself
its still cheap to eat and sleep over there so dont stress!! the rest is free

[same o]

heheh

investment products at my work had 30,000,000.00 worth of withdrawals in 24 hours since the government has guaranteed deposits

[deviant]

sick joke imo

1.00 AUD = 55.9206 JPY

[nic]

[FoundationStepper]

already paid for your JR pass?

[deviant]

nah, going in on monday to get it... they told me $825 today... hoping they don't change it

[autumnleaves]

I'm going to the states at the beginning of December. Should I buy up travellers cheques now before it crashes further or hold on? what's the estimate of any knowledgeable people here?